Project Title:

Operational Forecasting of Florida Sea Breeze Thunderstorms Using a Mesoscale

13.05-1424
Operational Forecasting of Florida Sea Breeze Thunderstorms Using a Mesoscale
R*SCAN Corp., Business & Technology Center
511 Eleventh Avenue South
Minneapolis
MN
55415
Lyons
Walter A.
NAS10-11321
Amount:   
KSC
NAS10-11142

Abstract:

   Sea breeze convection (SBC) thunderstorms are a major impediment to SpaceShuttle operation at KSC, and are notoriously difficult to forecast.  A mesoscale
numerical model (MNM), previously used as a research tool [Pielke, 1974], shows a
great potential for improving forecast guidance in the "mesoscale forecast gap,"
extending from T+1 to T+12 hours.  Three case studies with similar synoptic conditions
but distinctly different SBC storm patterns were simulated.  A hybrid thunderstorm
potential index, combining model predicted mesoscale maximum vertical motion fields
and the perturbations of thermodynamic stability due to localized moisture convergence,
yielded very encouraging results when compared to thunderstorm distributions (determined
by a lightning tracking system).  The model physics will be upgraded by (1) incorporating
the Fritsch-Chappell convective parameterization scheme to forecast cloud tops and
wind gusts, (2) improving the initialization schemes for cloudiness and non-homogeneous
and non-
stationary synoptic situations, and (3) developing a fine mesh grid (2.5 km) version
to account for the local convergence effects of Cape Canaveral.  A two-year test
and evaluation program (up to 100 simulations) is proposed, with the second year
generating real-time forecasts transmitted for use on an experimental basis.  Other
model uses (evaluating dispersion regimes and providing input to the MIDDS and MARSS
systems) will be tested experimentally.