NASA SBIR 2020-I Solicitation

Proposal Summary


PROPOSAL NUMBER:
 20-1- S5.06-5891
SUBTOPIC TITLE:
 Space Weather R2O/O2R Technology Development
PROPOSAL TITLE:
 Machine Learning Enabled Thermosphere Advanced by HASDM (META-HASDM)
SMALL BUSINESS CONCERN (Firm Name, Mail Address, City/State/Zip, Phone)
Space Environment Technologies, LLC
1676 Palisades Drive
Pacific Palisades, CA 90272
(310) 573-4185

Principal Investigator (Name, E-mail, Mail Address, City/State/Zip, Phone)

Name:
W. Kent Tobiska
E-mail:
ktobiska@spacenvironment.net
Address:
1676 Palisades Drive Pacific Palisades, CA 90272 - 2111
Phone:
(310) 573-4185

Business Official (Name, E-mail, Mail Address, City/State/Zip, Phone)

Name:
W. Kent Tobiska
E-mail:
ktobiska@spacenvironment.net
Address:
1676 Palisades Drive Pacific Palisades, CA 90272 - 2111
Phone:
(310) 573-4185
Estimated Technology Readiness Level (TRL) :
Begin: 4
End: 5
Technical Abstract (Limit 2000 characters, approximately 200 words)

This project, titled Machine learning Enabled Thermosphere Advanced by HASDM (META-HASDM), will provide publicly, for the first time, the operationally derived SET HASDM database as a national benchmark for improving thermospheric density forecasting for LEO satellites. To aid rapid, public access we will develop machine learning (ML) algorithms to characterize the terabyte-sized two-solar cycle SET HASDM database by using JB2008 indices and other physical drivers; this algorithm is called HASDM-ML. The HASDM-ML algorithm will be validated against a subset of the SET HASDM database. In addition, the team will use HASDM-ML densities with Two-Line Elements (TLEs) of a few representative satellites to create more accurate ballistic coefficients, B*, for a few satellites in a historic atmosphere under known solar irradiance and geomagnetic conditions. The uncertainty will be quantified for density and for forecast satellite drag. We will extend orbit estimates to current and near-term epochs to improve orbit forecasting relevant to LEO space traffic management by using the new B* values. Finally, we will improve JB2008 indices’ forecast over the next 72 hours using ML techniques; this will be complemented by the capture of high speed streams (HSS) not currently represented for the Dst geomagnetic index as well as by extending forecast accuracy out to 7 days using the existing ADAPT model values for F10 and S10.

Potential NASA Applications (Limit 1500 characters, approximately 150 words)

The existing SET support of the U.S. Space Force's HASDM leads to regular conjunction assessment for NASA high value vehicles. The ISS is moved approximately once per month to avoid higher collision probabilities with debris based on our forecasts and this occurs with other NASA assets in space. The NASA CARA community, which provides NASA with expertise in avoiding collisions with NASA space vehicles, will be a direct beneficiary of the progress we make on the goals and deliverables in the META-HASDM project.

Potential Non-NASA Applications (Limit 1500 characters, approximately 150 words)

There are three major groups in the LEO space community that will benefit from our success in META-HASDM. These include: i) the Department of Commerce (space traffic management); ii) the U.S. Space Force at Vandenberg AFB; and iii) commercial aerospace (SpaceX and OneWeb as well as existing international partners in Brazil, Germany, and Japan). We continue ongoing discussions with these groups.

Duration: 6

Form Generated on 06/29/2020 21:06:12